THE COURSE OFTHE PROBLEMS BETWEEN GREECE AND TURKEY

 

               

 

  The Greek and Turkish Ministers of Foreign Affairs Discussing their Countries Bad Relations  

 

According to Alexis Papachelas of the “Kathimerini”, Greek-Turkish relations were for a long time at knife’s edge.  We found ourselves for the first time since 1996 to armed conflict.  Everything now points to a period of relative calm.  There will be rhetorical clashes and tensions, but not uncontrolled.

 

Ankara realised that it is expending an excessive amount of international capital on defending its reation towards Greece.  Erdogan has a lot of problems in Turkey and, presently, he wishes to keep the relations with Greece more relaxed, of course,

that will not be easy.  Erdogan’s dependence on the national Turkish extreme right is obvious.  He needs it, and that makes tactical attacks on Greece and Cyprus a necessity.

Athens and Ankara have agreed to disagree and will have to live with this situation for some time.  Diplomats will negotiate without pressure; the military will do the same and the time will pass unless there are any impermissible Turkish attacks in Thrace and Kastelorizo.

 

Cyprus is a different story, the pressure will not abate.  The goal is to officially recognize the division of the island.  Erdogan will move forward with a large project in occupied Famagusta, which is, also, an important investment for the Turkish business establishment.  Funds are already being sought and the goal is to move with the project immediately.  There also exists the scenario of Turkish inadmissible drilling in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), a scenario that remains possible but depends on international reactions.

 

Turkey seems determined to push ends on wider developments and bring things to the brink in Cyprus to force the final resolution of the issue.  Ankara is aware that the European Union would never allow an independent Turkish-Cypriot state to become a member of the bloc, as it would essentially be admitting Turkey itself by the back door. 

 

Over the next months, the issue of the “problem without a solution”, as it is called by experienced diplomats, will become clear.  Many, following the developments, wonder if the tragic denouement will be the annexation of the Turkish-Cypriot pseudostate by Turkey.

 

There is increasing tension in Cyprus which will reverse this prediction and maybe a report by Erdogan that the Oruc Reis has discovered gas reserves in the area between Cyprus and Kastellorizo.  In that case “history’s accelerator” would start working again.