CORONAVIRUS, BREXIT AND RENEWED HOPES FOR SCOTTTISH INDEPENDENCE

Whether or not to seek independence or not has been dominant in Scottish politics, since a long period.  It transcends nearly every issue, including Brexit while Scotland's opposition to leaving the EU is well-known,  Brexit has greatly functioned as a means for the present independence debate.


As it has everywhere, the coronavirus pandemic, however,  has also changed politics in Scotland, the independence talks have been suspended.  For instance, the Scottish government has stopped preparing for a prospective new referendum and the ruling Scottish National Party officially stopped all respective campaigning.


The public policy response to the coronavirus has exposed the division of powers within the UK to a much wider extent than usual.  Health, education, law and order are all the responsibilities of the Scottish government, not the UK government.  However, this system remains inadequately understood in London. 

Even throughout the pandemic, the issue of Scottish independence never completely disappeared.  It has greatly demonstrated itself through arguments over whether Scotland should coordinate or diverge with England around the coronavirus lockdown, including travel restrictions, reopening society and social distancing advice.  Several opponents of independence have supported following the UK government's approach while independence followers support that Scotland should set its own course.


Regular politics have started returning, particularly encouraged by Brexit.  The negotiations of the EU/UK future are clearly in difficulty.  Even if progress is made during the talks the objective of the free trade agreement plus cooperation on other areas would make the UK  " the most disconnect country from the EU this side of the continent".  On the other hand, the Scottish government published a report arguing for the transition to be extended due to the coronavirus.  The UK government, however, remains bound to the original timetable. 

Mrs Nicola Sturgeon

Now that the Brexit adjustment has not been extended the independence debate should restart more fully in the months ahead.  The main pro-pandemic focus of the Scottish government had been to secure a new legally valid referendum through consensus with the UK government.  The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, requested a "transfer of power for one last December", which was rejected by Boris Johnson. Nevertheless, Mrs Sturgeon has promised to hold a referendum by the end of this year.  The coronavirus ended this project, though it had seemed improbable in any case. 


The Scottish National Party's objective has been to follow the precedent set through the 2014 referendum: a temporary transfer of authority to the Scottish parliament for a legal referendum and a consensus between the Scottish and UK governments. Taking into account London's unwillingness to discuss these points the next Scottish election is shaping up of becoming a "defining moment" on whether a referendum will take place. That election is scheduled for May 2021, and independence will undoubtedly be the central issue.


If the election produces a parliamentary majority in favour of independence the UK government will be pressed to facilitate a referendum.


Independence will eventually make its full return to Scotland's politics and will now be heavily shaped by both Brexit and the coronavirus.  Through these accounts, the upcoming Scottish elections will undoubtedly prove Scotland political future. 



   

Thistle - Scotland's National Sign