IS RUSSIA GOING TO INVADE UKRAINE?

                                                                    

 

Are Russian forces getting ready for war in Ukraine?  At least 130.000 Russian troops are positioned within reach of Ukraine’s borders as Russia demands security guarantees from the West.   While the US says Russian forces are ready to launch military action any day, Moscow has repeatedly said it has no such plans and points for the withdrawal of some units.  What happens next could jeopardize Europe’s entire security structure.

 

Russia is adamant it has no plans to attack Ukraine, but the threat is taken seriously because Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and seized some of its territories. More than 100.000  Russian troops have been deployed close to the Ukrainian borders and reported 30.000 more troops are engaged in exercises in Belarus, close to its 1.084 km borders with Ukraine.  Joe Biden says in total they are more than 150.000.

 

Russia’s Defence Ministry has said it is sending some of its units back to base after they have completed combat drills, but major exercises are still going on.   The Belarus exercises are scheduled to end on the 20^{th of} February.   NATO sees no sign of de-escalation and that Russia has “massive invasion forces” ready to attack from Crimea to Belarus.  What is not known is what president Putin has decided on this issue.  Many Western governments have called their citizens to leave Ukraine.

 

Ukraine’s president has appealed to the West not to spread panic and France believes that Putin’s main aim is on gaining a better security deal.  Mr Putin insists that Russia does not want war and is ready to negotiate but he has also threatened “appropriate retaliatory military readiness” were not met.  Russia has resisted Ukraine’s move towards European institutions, both NATO and the EU.  Its core remains now is for the West to guarantee Ukraine will not join NATO a defensive alliance of 30 countries.   

 

Ukraine shares borders with both the EU and Russia, but as a former Soviet Republic it has deep social and cultural ties with Russia and Russian is widely spoken there.  When the Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian president in early 2014, Russia annexed Ukraine’s southern Crimean peninsular and backed separatists who captured swaths of eastern Ukraine.  The rebels fought the Ukrainian military ever since in a conflict that claimed more than 14.000 lives.

 

Russia is also frustrated that a 2015 peace deal for eastern Ukraine is far from being fulfilled.  There are still no arrangements for independently monitored elections in the separatist regions.  Russia denies the accusations that is part of the conflict.